People often wonder why the EU’s team of negotiators is so keen to push through a Brexit deal with the United Kingdom no matter what happens, and some insight has been gained from a report that shows that the EU would lose out to the tune of £507bn in the event that the UK decides to simply just walk away.
Therefore, it seems that there is a genuine level of fear and anxiety behind all of the chest beating and Brussels bluster.
More importantly, the same study has also revealed that Britain would experience a significant gain in this situation of £641bn.
All of this leads to one simple question: Why can’t we just walk away and reap the benefits?
According to a report in Breitbart:
A new study has calculated a ‘No Deal’ Brexit would cost the EU some £507 billion, while the UK reaps a £641 billion windfall.
Cardiff University’s Professor Patrick Minford argues that, for the United Kingdom, “a breakdown would be a short-term nuisance but a substantial economic gain [over the longer term]”.
For the EU, on the other hand, ‘No Deal’ is “both a short-term nuisance and a substantial economic loss [over the longer term]”.
The economist explains that Britain’s exit from the EU Customs Union would cost the European Union “two years’ worth of the terms of trade gain its producers make on its balance of trade surplus with the UK, estimated at around £18 billion a year”, with two years’ worth of that equating to a “£36 billion one-off loss”.
Britain, on the other hand, would enjoy a “one-off gain” of £38 billion in savings on its EU budget contribution, and a £180 billion windfall from the “long-term gain” represented by “free trade, own-regulation and own-border-control”.
He also suggests that, as the balance of trade currently favours the EU, the UK would gain a total of £433 billion tariff revenue from EU exporters.
While it is only natural to take studies and reports like this with ‘a pinch of salt,’ it does offer a refreshingly alternative point of view to the common media narrative that ‘no deal’ would see the United Kingdom enter a period of immense hardship.
It has become popular to talk about ‘walking away’ sending Britain into a downward spiral that would end up with the whole country looking like something from a Charles Dickens novel, but this report will certainly give both sides of the Brexit negotiation food for thought.
Regarding the two main numbers that have been quoted – even if they were halved it would still give the EU major cause for concern, while also giving the United Kingdom the motivation to go it alone.
Unfortunately, this sort of research will ultimately hold little sway with those who are in charge of negotiating our exit.
While the usual suspects are getting their knickers in a twist about our government not releasing volume after volume of Brexit impact data, they are simultaneously ignoring research like this that shows that we would be OK with the proper planning in place.
Therefore, when people are screaming from the rooftops about every single Brexit scenario leaving our country ‘worse off,’ they are also choosing to ignore contrary evidence that would weaken their argument immensely.
Call it Post-Referendum Project Fear …